Posts Tagged ‘NGA’

Keeping up with the Jitsuzumis

Saturday, April 10th, 2010

The first goal of the FCC’s recent National Broadband Plan is to ensure at least 100 million US homes have access to Internet connections with download speeds of at least 100 Mbps by the end of the decade (the year 2020).  This goal strikes me as not being a terribly ambitious.  I only have a single data point to support that conclusion, which is typically referred as an anecdote.

Prof. Jitsuzumi's Class

One of these is not like the others.

During a business trip to Japan last year, I traveled to Fukuoka to visit my good friend Prof. Toshiya Jitsuzumi.  (According to Wikipedia Fukuoka is Japan’s eighth most populous city and its second youngest).  Prof. Jitsuzumi invited me to give two talks: one to Kyushu University’s Faculty of Economics and one to his undergraduate students in communications economics.  To the undergraduates, I gave a lecture about the policy and economics of Next Generation Access Networks in the European Union.  I found Prof. Jitsuzumi’s students to be bright and engaging.  In the middle of the lecture, the students had some trouble understanding one of my stats on the number of homes passed by fibre optic access networks in the EU.  At first, I thought the confusion was due to my weak Japanese language skills.  After a bit of back and forth, I discovered the source of the confusion.  Prof Jitsuzumi’s students all have fibre optic connections to their homes.  I was the only one in the room who did not have a fibre optic Internet connection to his home (NB: I live in a suburb of Bonn, Germany).  The source of the confusion was that they were questioning why one would want to count homes passed.  This is not obvious if you and all your classmates  already has a fibre optic connection.

Insight: Granted Prof. Jitsuzumi’s class is not a representative sample set, but I can’t help feeling that the FCC is trying to catch the US up in ten years to where Japan is now.  From what I have been reading on the listservs, given current pace of deployment of FiOS and DOCSIS 3.0, the market will accomplish this goal on its own.  This fact begs the question what is need for governmental intervention.  Instead, the FCC should propose a more ambitious goal (one that might have a higher risk of failure) and devise a road map necessary for achieving that goal.  Perhaps this will come out in follow on work to National Broadband Plan.

Marketing FFTH

Wednesday, November 26th, 2008

In my last Cool Stuff post, I wrote about FFTH (or fiber from the house).  In the past week, I have had the chance to refine my idea, and I even had a chance to read the very good paper by Slater and Wu, Homes with Tails.  The more I think about the subject, the more I come to the conclusion that main issue is syndication of the risk of stranded investment.  The strategies which deal directly with spreading this risk have the greatest chance of succeeding.

Just to review FFTH, is where the homeowner buys his own Internet connection.  Under the simple scenario, Joe the Fiber Layer comes to Joe the Homeowner and offers to build him his own fiber optic Internet connection.  The cost of this construction is highly sensitive to the number of homes which take the offer in a given area.  Using Slater and Wu’s numbers regarding the Verzion FiOS roll out, the capital cost for a fiber to the home connection is about $7,000 if 20% of homes passed take the service and on the order of $3,000 to $4,000 at a 40% take-up rate.

Insight:  There is a marketing strategy which plays perfectly to this problem.  Suppose Joe the Fiber Layer comes to Joe the homeowner and makes the following offer, “I will build you your own fiber Internet connection for $5,500.  However, if 5 other homes on your line buy FFTH, I will send you a check for $500; if 10 more take it, I will send you a check for $800; 20, $1,500; etc.” I can imagine that in everywhere in America there would be neighbors leaning across the hedges saying, “Dude, we just got our FFTH connection.  It is AAAAAWSOME! You totally have to get one of these!”  Word-of-mouth is the best marketing, but peer pressure is better.

FFTH: Fiber From the House

Wednesday, November 19th, 2008

A while back, I was asked by a client how to stimulate the deployment of a fiber to the home infrastructure given the enormous risk of stranded investment and given a potentially capital-constrained incumbent. I suggested FFTH – fiber from the home. I was not being facetious, at least not totally.

When I gave my answer, I was thinking about the Netherlands. One of the major investors in fiber to the home projects in the Netherlands is a real estate developer. The reasoning is simple. Houses with access to broadband Internet services sell for a premium over comparable house without. (Lehr, Osorio, Gillett and Sirbu did an excellent TPRC paper measuring the magnitude of that premium, which I cannot find). In addition to making money as a fiber access provider, the real estate developer could capture the benefit of increased property values created by the availability of broadband Internet access.

I mentioned my FFTH idea to David Isenberg at the recent CITI 25th Anniversary Gala, and to his credit, David mentioned me in his blog posting (thanks, David). In addition, Sascha Meinrath and Michael Calabrese at the New America Foundation have organized an event for this Friday to examine the idea of FFTH. Calling it “Home with Tails”, Tim Wu and Derek Slater examine in a forthcoming paper whether this is a “customer centric” means for driving broadband adoption. Further, FFTH might possess other benefits. Eli Noam has suggested that private ownership of the access potion of the broadband network would help to solve the network neutrality problem.

Insight: When I suggested FFTH, I was not thinking about Network Neutrality and other consumer issues. I was merely thinking about distributing the risk of potentially stranded investment. However, since the idea of FFTH seems to have some merit I wanted to put a finer point on it, examine some of the potential downsides, and the policies which might be necessary to make FFTH possible.

Think about this. Instead of getting a cable modem or FiOS from Comcast or Verizon, Joe the Fiber Layer knocks on your door and offers to build you a fiber loop to the nearest Internet access node. And for less than it would cost to have Joe the Plumber remodel a bathroom (somewhere between $2,000 and $7,000), you would have your own fiber connection which greatly increase the value of the whole house at resale time.

The first thing necessary for the policies which to enable a FFTH business model is full and open interconnection to the nearest feasible Internet access point. This might be a remote terminal, street cabinet, or cable node. Creating effective access at this level is not necessarily an easy task. This may be small engineering spaces with powering and other serious engineering concerns. Thus, it might be able to accommodate every Joe or Jane the Fiber Layer who wants to put their customers’ equipment in those access points. Further, it would be simply impossible for each homeowner to have someone dig up the streets or hang fiber everywhere.

Here in Germany, we have some experience with policies for privately owned access networks. Back about 20 years ago, or so, a political decision was made to separate cable delivery from in-building plant. An artificial classification of access Level 3 and Level 4 was created. Level 4 network providers owned the cable wires inside individual buildings and there are some 700 of these companies still in existence. Level 3 providers were restricted for offering in-building wiring. This arrangement has lead to certain economic inefficiencies and may have some effect in hampering cable deployment in Germany. Thus, any policy designed to enable FFTH should not create artificial classifications and unreasonably prohibit network from providing services further up or down in the network. And who knows, you might someday find a major incumbent seeking unbundled access to your private fiber loop.