Love to fly.
We have enjoyed a perfectly sunny weekend in Northern Germany – not a cloud in the sky, not even a contrail. Obviously, all commercial air traffic in the region has been grounded due to the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano. The only air traffic near us includes some low-flying, single-engine planes flying VFR in the Rhine river corridor, a few gliders kettling over Oberkassel, and a hot air balloon soaring over Mehlem. Deutsche Bahn is running the ICE (the 300 kmh train) down the regional lines to add rail capacity to move people around during the crisis.
As I am sitting in my yard and looking toward the jet-plane-free sky, I am wondering what the long-term implications might be if Eyjafjallajokull continues to spew volcanic ash into the sky for the next few weeks or, worse, if it continues to erupt sporadically over the coming months and years. It could make air travel intermittent and unpredictable in Europe.
This could be potentially damning for the airlines lines, but a boon to telecommunications infrastructure providers, video conferencing firms, and high speed rail which could see demand for their products and services take off (pun not intended).
Don’t get me wrong, I love planes and I love flying (see the picture), but I am also a big fan of both high-speed rail and telecommunications. So, I am not rejoicing in this. If people cannot get to where they need to go to conduct their business by air, they will have to find other means or even substitutes. Most of Western Europe is crisscrossed with high speed rail links. Many of these trains are capable of speeds which are nearly half that a jet aircraft. On trips of less than 500-600 km, it is actually faster and easier to take the train because one does not have to arrive two hours before departure and deal with getting through security. If one cannot get where he needs to go, video conferencing is the only option. Companies like Cisco and Skype have already made ventures into high-definition, mass market video conferencing solutions. An essential ingredient for these solutions to work is ultra-broadband access networks.
Insight: The eruption of Eyjafjallajokull could provide the impetus for further investment in communications infrastructure and high-speed rail in Europe. The downside of this fact for the US is that it will significantly harder to stay competitive in these crucial infrastructure areas.
