Posts Tagged ‘Cool Stuff’

Back to the Future Station

Saturday, July 31st, 2010
Back to the Future Station

L - R: Carter, Neumann, Kii, Sato

On my recent business trip to Tokyo, I had the opportunity to have lunch with my good friend Hajime Kii and his family.  I know Kii-san from when he was a senior executive at NTT America and I was working at CITI at Columbia University.  Kii-san was kind enough to arrange a visit to NTT DOCOMO’s Future Station for me and WIK’s CEO Karl-Heinz Neumann while we were in town.  At its Future Station, DOCOMO presents a short film showcasing its high-concept vision of its product and service offerings for the near-term future.

I had mentioned to Kii-san that I had seen it in 2001 as part of a delegation from Columbia University including Eli Noam and Robert Pepper (now at Cisco Systems).  The 2001 version included a short film showed DOCOMO’s vision for wireless communications in the year 2010.  Eli and Pepper kept giggling and looking at me because the kid in the 2001 film was named “Ken”.  Now that it is 2010, I was clearly interested to compare the 2001 film to the 2010 version and to the products currently offered.

Well, aside from the fact that the kid in the film is now called Hiro, many of the ideas in the 2001 film have made their way into current products and prototypes.  After the film we got to tour their showroom.  Granted, the floating touch screens are still science fiction; however, products like ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems), augmented reality, multimedia handsets, mobile commerce, and location-aware services have made it into their cool new handsets.  My favorite handset comes with a detachable QWERTY keyboard and a projection monitor.  One can use any Bluetooth keyboard (unlike my complaint with the iPhone) and can use the detachable projector to make presentations (movie screen not included).  We also were able to play with a protype handset which does augmented reality, allowing you to see what it would be like to have a new car (you can change the style, color, etc.) in your driveway.  Dr. Neumann was able to use one of display handsets to buy a drink from a vending machine and buy a Big Mac from a McDonald’s mock-up.  Using your cell phone to pay for anything from train tickets to lunch to groceries is completely old hat in Japan.  DOCOMO also showed us two new handsets which have natural wood exteriors.

Hokusai's Great Wave off Kanagawa

Hokusai's Great Wave off Kanagawa

The other cool fact I learned from the 2010 film is that the yukio-e woodblock prints of the master Hokusai Katsushika captured the movement of water at 1/5000 of a second.  (By comparison, most digital SLR cameras are not faster than 1/1000 of a second.)

Insight: DOCOMO’s Future Station is very cool.  While visiting the Future Station, I was like a kid in a candy shop on Christmas morning.  Being there reminded me why I got into telecommunications in the first place – because tomorrow will always a brighter day with bigger (smaller), better, faster and Cooler Stuff.  I will have to go back in 2020.  I will give you an update then.

Wi-Fi? Wi-Not?

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

In the past several weeks, there have been several news articles and blog posts about the possibility of Wi-Fi being a solution to congested mobile networks.  There was a piece in Total Telecom, one by Maggie Reardon, and one by Stephen Rayment for the FT.

The argument is that the widespread adoption of smart phones and mobile Internet has congested mobile wireless networks to the breaking point.  In order to alleviate congestion on their 3G or 4G network, carriers could offload traffic onto Wi-Fi networks (including those of other operators).  This would free up the carriers’ limited spectrum resources which they obtained at auction through the licensing process.  And, it could be done more cheaply than upgrading existing cell sites. (Dana Blankenhorn at ZDNet correctly points out the inconsistency of giving more spectrum to wireless carriers if unlicensed operation is the solution. It was not so long ago that wireless carriers were crying foul that all Wi-Fi networks such as the now defunct Cometa presented unfair competition because they had not spent billions to acquire their licenses at auction.)

Insight:  Integrating mobile networks with Wi-Fi is a good idea.  It is, however, not a new one.  At a conference nearly eight years ago at Columbia University and in the ensuing paper, I suggested that wireless carriers consider incorporating Wi-Fi into their networks.  My reasoning was not so much about load balancing as it was about market segmentation.  Complementing existing 3G networks with Wi-Fi would enable carriers to offer tiered services – a best efforts service and a better than best efforts service – charging different prices for both and increasing profitability.  I also suggested it would be possible to use spectrum not licensed to the carrier such as the spectrum which has been allocated to CB RadioGMRS, or FRS.  A 2003 FCC rule change would allow handsets cable of operating both on mobile networks and in these bands. In this way, carriers could offer services like push-to-talk or walkie-talkies without encumbering their already burdened spectrum and networks. Users would be able to speak directly to others in their area, even users on other carriers’ networks.  Alas, there was not much economic incentive for carriers to sell such handsets because it would reduce the mobile termination revenues which carriers charge one another (and eventually their subscribers) for completing calls over their networks.  However, with the balance of market power tipping away from networks and in favor of handset providers recently, it might be possible that we would see such enabled handsets in the next few years.

Next Generation Spectrum Regulation

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009
Spectrum band plan created by price-guided mechanisms

Spectrum band plan created by price-guided mechanisms

Winston Churchill famously said, “democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.”  Perhaps the same can be said of spectrum auctions.  Auction mechanisms have been used starting in New Zealand in 1994 to award spectrum licenses to those who have the highest monetary value. Spectrum auctions have generally been highly effective, with the occasional failure.

Despite their success, auctions have some notable drawbacks such as the so-called winners curse and the fact the up-front license fees require spectrum users to raise capital beyond the princely sums necessary to build a wireless network – a barrier to entry.  However, auctions are far better than the administrative processes which have been used for nearly a century to determine spectrum assignments.  Administrative decisions tend not to be economically efficient because the regulator has limited access to information which market participants would be more able to amass and utilize. There are also problems of political independence and of regulatory capture.

While auctions have been used to determine who gets spectrum rights, they have not really been used to determine the contours of those rights.  These contours are still determined through administrative decisions.

I have just completed a major study on next generation spectrum regulation which can serve as the basis for removing certain barriers to spectrum access, allowing more effective sharing and efficient allocations.

I can think of no reason why a properly designed auction could not determine not only who gets the spectrum rights, but what those rights are.  (Think of it this way: an auction on eBay for a car could determine not just who gets the car, but the color of the car and whether it comes with, say, leather seats or alloy wheels.)  I built a mathematical model of a next-generation spectrum auction using the Shannon-Hartley Theorem as a means modeling behavior by valuing the spectrum when considering the actions of other would-be users.  In my model bidders could express their demands for not just bandwidth, but power, modulation, underlay/interference, and other characteristics.  When I ran an MS Excel-based version of the model, the result was a mix of high and low power uses in the winning bids.  The low power bidders (similar to UWB spectral densities) could in a second round be aggregated into some form of licensed commons with the coordination protocol determined in that part of the auction.  The outcome would resemble a shared use or common arrangement where no one party controlled the spectrum.  However, the most interesting thing was that because bidders could obtain spectrum allocations that more closely fit their needs, more than 40% of the spectrum bandwidth available in the auction was left unsold.  This spectrum was valued by the market to be best allocated to either public sector use or even low- to mid-power unlicensed use.

Insight:  You cannot see, touch, taste, smell, or hear radio spectrum.  Spectrum is not a thing; it is an idea – a legal and engineering construct that explains a physical phenomenon and helps us arrange our behavior accordingly.  That fundamental physical phenomenon is the fact that when electromagnetic waves are: (1) harmonic in frequency; (2) incident in time; and (3) alight on the same reception device, the ability of those waves to be used as information carriers is degraded.  This deleterious effect is known to us as interference.  Without some form of intervention, it is impossible to exclude or limit the use of a common resource such as spectrum. Without exclusion, users consume the spectrum without regard to fact that their usage causes the deleterious effect of interference for other would-be users.  Policies which help to mitigate inference with the least amount of effort will be the most socially beneficial.

One Year of Cool Stuff

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009

Today marks the first anniversary of Cool Stuff (in this incarnation).  In the past year, I have made 30 posts in 10 categories and 54 tags. There are a total of 41 comments.  Cool Stuff has garnered more than 1,600 hits, with the post on John McCain and Wi-Fi being far and away the most popular post.

Insight:  I have greatly enjoyed writing Cool Stuff and will try to devote a bit more time to it.  I get jazzed when I find that people are reading my blog and that it is helping to generate thinking about the next generation of issues in communications strategy, business, and policy.  I also think it is really cool when I get a Google search hit – especially when someone hits my blog when they were might not have exactly been looking for it.  To this end, I have created the Top Ten Google Hits on Cool Stuff (all of these are real search terms reported by the WordPress blog stats plug-in).  The Top Ten Google Hits on Cool Stuff are:

10.       “pusher prop airplane”

9.         ken carter aircraft

8.         hackintosh illegal

7.         ken carter’s wife

6.         unlicensed to kill: a brief history of t

5.         irish directions advice i wouldn’t start

4.         always be sincere, whether you mean it o

3.         cool shit for browning hi power

2.         fcc working paper science fiction

And the number one Google Hit on Cool Stuff is:

recommend stuff white people like.

Observations from Supernova2008

Wednesday, June 18th, 2008

I have been listening to a bunch of excellent presentations for the first two days of Supernova2008. Rather than rehashing what each speaker has said, I have been trying to formulate a theme. Not an easy task. I have noticed a few reoccurring themes: social activity, intellectual property, management of information, and marketing; all good network-related themes. I spent most of the second day at the Open Flow Track. Much of what was discussed was is integrating systems: Connecting the connections. That is to say that the internet has provided connectivity and access to persons and applications. The essence of Web 3.0 is making sure that your Flickr works with your Dopplr, with your, dare I say, Napstr.

Insight: The rich and lively discussion in the Open Flow Track seemed to focus more on engineering and business practice questions in terms of getting APIs to work together and making sure that privacy, security, and trust are respected according to applicable law and good business practices. I still found myself searching for more a fundamental concept. A more fundamental question which was present but perhaps not fully articulated was how to describe this continuum of “openness” vs. “closedness” (not a real word). So, here I get to like to wax poetic for a second. Eric Raymond, a pioneer of Linux and the open source movement, gives us a particularly literary book title and syllogism, “The Cathedral and the Bazaar”. Raymond sees the cathedral as representing a system of architecture which is, “carefully crafted by individual wizards or small bands of mages working in splendid isolation – no beta version.” It is a centralized, coordinated approach. Open source architecture he likens to “a babbling bazaar of different agendas and approaches.” It is decentralized with varying standards and rules, but is not anarchy. Both approaches seem to work in creating stable systems, though they may be suit to different types of applications.

It was widely agreed that there should be a general preference for openness. I agree, but to my mind that there is a choice between openness and closedness. This choice implies a tradeoff. And, if there is a tradeoff, there is by necessity some optimization. What the optimum is will depend largely on your point of view and social optimum does not necessarily equate one-to-one with a private optimum. At the very least we can have a rational discussion as to what the relative merits of the tradeoff are and where the different optima may lie. In sum, do we want a world that looks more like the Cathedra or the Bazaar, or is there an entirely new form of architecture that we should consider?