Archive for the ‘Cool Stuff’ Category

Back to the Future Station

Saturday, July 31st, 2010
Back to the Future Station

L - R: Carter, Neumann, Kii, Sato

On my recent business trip to Tokyo, I had the opportunity to have lunch with my good friend Hajime Kii and his family.  I know Kii-san from when he was a senior executive at NTT America and I was working at CITI at Columbia University.  Kii-san was kind enough to arrange a visit to NTT DOCOMO’s Future Station for me and WIK’s CEO Karl-Heinz Neumann while we were in town.  At its Future Station, DOCOMO presents a short film showcasing its high-concept vision of its product and service offerings for the near-term future.

I had mentioned to Kii-san that I had seen it in 2001 as part of a delegation from Columbia University including Eli Noam and Robert Pepper (now at Cisco Systems).  The 2001 version included a short film showed DOCOMO’s vision for wireless communications in the year 2010.  Eli and Pepper kept giggling and looking at me because the kid in the 2001 film was named “Ken”.  Now that it is 2010, I was clearly interested to compare the 2001 film to the 2010 version and to the products currently offered.

Well, aside from the fact that the kid in the film is now called Hiro, many of the ideas in the 2001 film have made their way into current products and prototypes.  After the film we got to tour their showroom.  Granted, the floating touch screens are still science fiction; however, products like ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems), augmented reality, multimedia handsets, mobile commerce, and location-aware services have made it into their cool new handsets.  My favorite handset comes with a detachable QWERTY keyboard and a projection monitor.  One can use any Bluetooth keyboard (unlike my complaint with the iPhone) and can use the detachable projector to make presentations (movie screen not included).  We also were able to play with a protype handset which does augmented reality, allowing you to see what it would be like to have a new car (you can change the style, color, etc.) in your driveway.  Dr. Neumann was able to use one of display handsets to buy a drink from a vending machine and buy a Big Mac from a McDonald’s mock-up.  Using your cell phone to pay for anything from train tickets to lunch to groceries is completely old hat in Japan.  DOCOMO also showed us two new handsets which have natural wood exteriors.

Hokusai's Great Wave off Kanagawa

Hokusai's Great Wave off Kanagawa

The other cool fact I learned from the 2010 film is that the yukio-e woodblock prints of the master Hokusai Katsushika captured the movement of water at 1/5000 of a second.  (By comparison, most digital SLR cameras are not faster than 1/1000 of a second.)

Insight: DOCOMO’s Future Station is very cool.  While visiting the Future Station, I was like a kid in a candy shop on Christmas morning.  Being there reminded me why I got into telecommunications in the first place – because tomorrow will always a brighter day with bigger (smaller), better, faster and Cooler Stuff.  I will have to go back in 2020.  I will give you an update then.

Report from ITS

Friday, July 9th, 2010

ITSEvery once in a while, one comes across something so trivial yet so flattering.  I was fortunate enough to attend the International Telecommunications Society 18th Biennial Conference in Tokyo last week.  I attended the panel on radio spectrum on the last day of the conference.  Two of the four papers presented on the spectrum panel were derived in some way from research I published in 2009.

The first paper was the History and Conceptual Development of Spectrum Commons in the USA by Nattawut Ard-Paru of the Chalmers University of Technology.  The historical treatment of her paper was taken from taken from Coase (1959), Hazlett (1998) and my Unlicensed to Kill: A brief history of the FCC’s Part 15 Rules.  Npot bad company to be in!

The fourth paper on the panel was Exclusive Spectrum Rights vs. Spectrum Commons by Dr. Kiyotaka Yuguchi of Sagami Women’s University.  Dr. Yuguchi reviews some of the recent literature in an attempt to synthesize commons and exclusive rights approaches.  He then develops certain extensions to my 2009 spectrum pricing model in my paper Next Generation Spectrum Regulation for Europe: Price-Guided Radio Policy.  Dr. Yuguchi looks at the marginal rate of substitution for technology for spectrum.  This is admittedly only implicit in my interference function.  He makes it explicit. However, this is what I had hoped people would do with the basic model – add complications and refinements which I did not have the resources to do in the original paper.

Insight:  I have been working in radio communications for nearly a decade.  It was so encouraging for me to see that my recent work is having such an important impact on the direction of current research.  If you work hard enough and long enough, you every once in a while you earn bragging rights.

Twenty-Five Years of Unlicensed Spread Spectrum

Monday, May 10th, 2010
Telesystems' ARLAN

The first commercial spread spectrum product, Telesystems' ARLAN, a radio LAN introduced in 1988. Source: FCC.

Today, the Wi-Fi Alliance and the Wireless Gigabit Alliance announced an enhancement to the current suite of 802.11 standards (Wi-Fi) which promises multi-gigabit wireless networking, in the 60 GHz frequency band.  The two associations expect that devices which have the new enhancement will be tri-band, also able to operate in the 2.4 and 5.8 GHz bands where Wi-Fi currently operates.

However, I am not sure if the Wi-Fi Alliance or the Wireless Gigabit Alliance realize the auspiciousness of the occasion of their announcement.  The announcement comes twenty-five years and one day after a much ignored FCC decision.  On May 9, 1985, FCC adopted rules which permitted the operation of spread spectrum systems in the ISM bands (902-928 MHz, 2.4-2.48 GHz and 5.725-5.85 GHz).  This rule change enabled the commercial rise of Wi-Fi, as well as so many other products and technologies take for granted today, such as Bluetooth, cordless phones, and baby monitors.

The FCC took this decision on its own initiative, rather than relying on requests for rule changes from the industries it regulates.  (In fact, many of the companies which initially opposed the rule change now earn millions of dollars of revenue from selling products that operate in these bands.)  One important person diving the FCC proceeding was national treasure Mike Marcus.  Marcus published a terrific account of the FCC proceeding in the journal info last year.  (I published in the same issue, and beat him out for best paper).  For his vision and insight in pushing the rule change through, Marcus was rewarded with nine years of exile to the outer Bureaus of the FCC.

Insight:  It never ceases to amaze me that a well-made decision can have exponential implications down the line.  Relying on the industry to tell the regulator can be helpful; however, this approach does not always serve the public interest.  In all instances, the regulator should exercise independent judgment.

The New Dutch Auction

Friday, May 7th, 2010

A Dutch auction is typically one where prices go down.  The auctioneer starts with a high price and then asks for lower prices.  The first person to call out gets the item at that price.  However, this is not how it worked in Holland last week.

A week ago, the Dutch telecommunications regulator Agentschap Telecom completed a spectrum auction for licenses in the 2.6 GHz band.  Five bidders spent just over €2.6 million to acquire 130 MHz of the 190 MHz in the band, but they did so in an unusual way.  Agentschap’s auction had two parts.  In the first part, bidders vied for a certain amount of spectrum.  In the second round, the bidders competed for specific 5 MHz blocks, with the option of single 5 MHz blocks of unpaired (TDD) spectrum or 2 x 5 MHz blocks of paired (FDD) spectrum.  This determined the pairing the band.  No FDD spectrum was acquired.

In this way, the auction determined whether the spectrum would be used for cellular type uses (FDD) or for WiMax-type uses (TDD).  To my knowledge, Agentschap’s auction was only the second time an auction was used to determine not just assignment but allocation as well.  In 2008, ComReg in Ireland used a very similar auction in the 26 GHz band.

Insight:  In a previous Cool Stuff, I wrote about my work to design an auction which could not determine not only who gets the spectrum rights, but what the contours of those rights are.  I called this approach: Price-Guided Radio Policy.  Now, we have two data points to suggest that this approach can work and can efficiently determine not only spectrum assignments but allocations as well.

My iPhone vs. My iGo

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010

Last week, I gave in and bought an iPhone.  I did not get it because of its must-have cachet as a technocrati status symbol.  Rather, I got it because I did not have many other smartphone options in my little town in Germany.  This is despite the fact that T-Mobile is also marketing the G1.

Nonetheless, I am kind of disappointed with my purchase.  It is a neat toy and I am impressed by what it can do.  I am, however, really annoyed by what I can’t do with it.  For one, the firewire cables and docking station I have from my second-gen iPod Classic are not compatible, even though the plugs are the same.  Congratulations, Apple, you have made your product incompatible with a piece of wire.  Further, I can’t sync it with iTunes using the iPhone’s onboard Bluetooth connection.  Clearly, the point of this is to force me to buy additional new cables so I do not have to schlep the one that came with the iPhone with me.  That kind of bundling is to be expected.

However, what really upsets me is the fact that I cannot use my Bluetooth keyboard with the iPhone.  I have a really cool iGo Stowaway folding keyboard, which my wife got me as a present a few years ago.  The keyboard is about passport-sized (about twice as think) and unfolds to a laptop-sized keyboard.  It’s really very handy.  However, the Bluetooth onboard the iPhone does not recognize the device and there are no apps for the keyboard in the App Store.  iGo’s website simply states that it is not compatible with the iPhone.  Obviously, I cannot load the software and drivers which came with the keyboard onto the iPhone and I am terrified that if I try to load a hack, Apple will brick my phone into a 200€ paperweight.

In many ways, my old Nokia N95 was a better, certainly more flexible, smartphone.

Insight:  It is an absurd result that I cannot use a standardized peripheral with my own computing device.  I have been using Apple products since 1982 (Apple II Plus, 32kb), but now, I am not purchasing another Apple product until I can do something as simple as hook-up my own keyboard to it.  In the meantime, there was this gem, via Guy Kawasaki.

Every Ash Cloud Has a Silver Lining (for some)

Sunday, April 18th, 2010

Love to fly.

We have enjoyed a perfectly sunny weekend in Northern Germany – not a cloud in the sky, not even a contrail.  Obviously, all commercial air traffic in the region has been grounded due to the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano.  The only air traffic near us includes some low-flying, single-engine planes flying VFR in the Rhine river corridor, a few gliders kettling over Oberkassel, and a hot air balloon soaring over Mehlem.  Deutsche Bahn is running the ICE (the 300 kmh train) down the regional lines to add rail capacity to move people around during the crisis.

As I am sitting in my yard and looking toward the jet-plane-free sky, I am wondering what the long-term implications might be if Eyjafjallajokull continues to spew volcanic ash into the sky for the next few weeks or, worse, if it continues to erupt sporadically over the coming months and years.  It could make air travel intermittent and unpredictable in Europe.

This could be potentially damning for the airlines lines, but a boon to telecommunications infrastructure providers, video conferencing firms, and high speed rail which could see demand for their products and services take off (pun not intended).

Don’t get me wrong, I love planes and I love flying (see the picture), but I am also a big fan of both high-speed rail and telecommunications.  So, I am not rejoicing in this.  If people cannot get to where they need to go to conduct their business by air, they will have to find other means or even substitutes.  Most of Western Europe is crisscrossed with high speed rail links.  Many of these trains are capable of speeds which are nearly half that a jet aircraft.  On trips of less than 500-600 km, it is actually faster and easier to take the train because one does not have to arrive two hours before departure and deal with getting through security.  If one cannot get where he needs to go, video conferencing is the only option.  Companies like Cisco and Skype have already made ventures into high-definition, mass market video conferencing solutions.  An essential ingredient for these solutions to work is ultra-broadband access networks.

Insight:  The eruption of Eyjafjallajokull could provide the impetus for further investment in communications infrastructure and high-speed rail in Europe.  The downside of this fact for the US is that it will significantly harder to stay competitive in these crucial infrastructure areas.

Wi-Fi? Wi-Not?

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

In the past several weeks, there have been several news articles and blog posts about the possibility of Wi-Fi being a solution to congested mobile networks.  There was a piece in Total Telecom, one by Maggie Reardon, and one by Stephen Rayment for the FT.

The argument is that the widespread adoption of smart phones and mobile Internet has congested mobile wireless networks to the breaking point.  In order to alleviate congestion on their 3G or 4G network, carriers could offload traffic onto Wi-Fi networks (including those of other operators).  This would free up the carriers’ limited spectrum resources which they obtained at auction through the licensing process.  And, it could be done more cheaply than upgrading existing cell sites. (Dana Blankenhorn at ZDNet correctly points out the inconsistency of giving more spectrum to wireless carriers if unlicensed operation is the solution. It was not so long ago that wireless carriers were crying foul that all Wi-Fi networks such as the now defunct Cometa presented unfair competition because they had not spent billions to acquire their licenses at auction.)

Insight:  Integrating mobile networks with Wi-Fi is a good idea.  It is, however, not a new one.  At a conference nearly eight years ago at Columbia University and in the ensuing paper, I suggested that wireless carriers consider incorporating Wi-Fi into their networks.  My reasoning was not so much about load balancing as it was about market segmentation.  Complementing existing 3G networks with Wi-Fi would enable carriers to offer tiered services – a best efforts service and a better than best efforts service – charging different prices for both and increasing profitability.  I also suggested it would be possible to use spectrum not licensed to the carrier such as the spectrum which has been allocated to CB RadioGMRS, or FRS.  A 2003 FCC rule change would allow handsets cable of operating both on mobile networks and in these bands. In this way, carriers could offer services like push-to-talk or walkie-talkies without encumbering their already burdened spectrum and networks. Users would be able to speak directly to others in their area, even users on other carriers’ networks.  Alas, there was not much economic incentive for carriers to sell such handsets because it would reduce the mobile termination revenues which carriers charge one another (and eventually their subscribers) for completing calls over their networks.  However, with the balance of market power tipping away from networks and in favor of handset providers recently, it might be possible that we would see such enabled handsets in the next few years.

Network Neutrality and the Samurai

Sunday, January 10th, 2010

The ITU Association of Japan just published my September keynote on Network Neutrality in the Highlights section of its January 2010 ITU AJ Journal.  The article is password protected, but if you are a member of the Association, you can get it from the website. (The article is in Japanese).

One of the points I made in the keynote (which is not in the brief article), was an analogy of Network Neutrality issues to Edō Period Japan.  The sankin kōtai laws of the Tokugawa Shogunate imposed a rule of prioritization on the Tokaido and Nakaseido roads between Edō (now, Tokyo) and Kyoto, as well as on other “kaido” emanating from the capital.  Access to Japanese roads was prioritized by social status, with only the Samurai class having access to the center of the road as their procession called a daimyo gyoretsu passed.  Lower classes were required to clear the road kneel down and bow as the Samurai passed.  Punishment for failing to clear the road was possible decapitation.

The concept of prioritization is not new, but it is universal.  It expresses fundamental and competing notions of fairness versus economic efficiency.  We think it is unfair to give preferential treatment to certain customers (those who are willing to pay more or have higher social status).  At the same time, we also think it is economically inefficient to mandate a single (or limited set of) Internet access options for everyone, including those who are willing to pay more for premium services.  When the network (or Tokkaido Road) is congested, prioritization can make users better off.  Prioritization can be accomplished based on economic characteristics, arrival order, processing load, urgency, or even social status.

Insight: Since all messages on an IP-based network travel at the same speed (the speed of light), in discussions of Network Neutrality, it is never who gets to go faster, rather which packet, or which samurai, gets to go first.  Such prioritization must be done in a way which is socially permissible and economically desirable.  Given that the penalty for breaching a classes of service restrains in Edo Japan was capital, I think I would rather get a reset packet.

Next Generation Spectrum Regulation

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009
Spectrum band plan created by price-guided mechanisms

Spectrum band plan created by price-guided mechanisms

Winston Churchill famously said, “democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.”  Perhaps the same can be said of spectrum auctions.  Auction mechanisms have been used starting in New Zealand in 1994 to award spectrum licenses to those who have the highest monetary value. Spectrum auctions have generally been highly effective, with the occasional failure.

Despite their success, auctions have some notable drawbacks such as the so-called winners curse and the fact the up-front license fees require spectrum users to raise capital beyond the princely sums necessary to build a wireless network – a barrier to entry.  However, auctions are far better than the administrative processes which have been used for nearly a century to determine spectrum assignments.  Administrative decisions tend not to be economically efficient because the regulator has limited access to information which market participants would be more able to amass and utilize. There are also problems of political independence and of regulatory capture.

While auctions have been used to determine who gets spectrum rights, they have not really been used to determine the contours of those rights.  These contours are still determined through administrative decisions.

I have just completed a major study on next generation spectrum regulation which can serve as the basis for removing certain barriers to spectrum access, allowing more effective sharing and efficient allocations.

I can think of no reason why a properly designed auction could not determine not only who gets the spectrum rights, but what those rights are.  (Think of it this way: an auction on eBay for a car could determine not just who gets the car, but the color of the car and whether it comes with, say, leather seats or alloy wheels.)  I built a mathematical model of a next-generation spectrum auction using the Shannon-Hartley Theorem as a means modeling behavior by valuing the spectrum when considering the actions of other would-be users.  In my model bidders could express their demands for not just bandwidth, but power, modulation, underlay/interference, and other characteristics.  When I ran an MS Excel-based version of the model, the result was a mix of high and low power uses in the winning bids.  The low power bidders (similar to UWB spectral densities) could in a second round be aggregated into some form of licensed commons with the coordination protocol determined in that part of the auction.  The outcome would resemble a shared use or common arrangement where no one party controlled the spectrum.  However, the most interesting thing was that because bidders could obtain spectrum allocations that more closely fit their needs, more than 40% of the spectrum bandwidth available in the auction was left unsold.  This spectrum was valued by the market to be best allocated to either public sector use or even low- to mid-power unlicensed use.

Insight:  You cannot see, touch, taste, smell, or hear radio spectrum.  Spectrum is not a thing; it is an idea – a legal and engineering construct that explains a physical phenomenon and helps us arrange our behavior accordingly.  That fundamental physical phenomenon is the fact that when electromagnetic waves are: (1) harmonic in frequency; (2) incident in time; and (3) alight on the same reception device, the ability of those waves to be used as information carriers is degraded.  This deleterious effect is known to us as interference.  Without some form of intervention, it is impossible to exclude or limit the use of a common resource such as spectrum. Without exclusion, users consume the spectrum without regard to fact that their usage causes the deleterious effect of interference for other would-be users.  Policies which help to mitigate inference with the least amount of effort will be the most socially beneficial.

Japan Communications’ New Business Model

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

On my October business trip to Tokyo, I took time to meet with Japan Communications‘ CEO Frank Sanda.  I know Frank from my work on the Eamon Ryan’s Advisory Forum on Broadband.  I wanted to see Frank and his team because they just launched a new product for Hewlett-Packard.  HP will now sell netbooks in Japan which come with 100 minutes of mobile wireless connectivity. Consumers can buy connectivity on a pay-as-you-go basis from Japan Communications, but branded as an HP service.

Japan Communications built a really cool billing system to handle payment and authentication.  But, Japan Communications does not have a wireless network.  That it gets from the leading carrier NTT DoCoMo. Japan Communications leases capacity on DoCoMo’s network nationwide, and has the ability to purchase more capacity as this business grows. HP gets to determine which devices are sold and can sell the connectivity as its own.  Furthermore, Japan Communications could set up such a system to sell anyone else’s networked devices.  Say, how about a Carterfone?

While Japan Communications negotiated with DoCoMo to get on its network, it was able to do so because the Japanese Ministry for Communications and Information created which rules opened the networks of three largest wireless operators DoCoMo, KDDI, and SoftBank to wholesale. There was apparently a three-year battle at the Ministry in which Japan Communications was at the center. Japan’s policy to require wholesale access to wireless networks goes further than the US FCC’s rules for its 700 MHz auction which mandated these open these networks to foreign devices and handsets.

Insight: This seems like a really cool business model with implications for carriers, devices manufacturers, and application service providers around the world. I have said in a previous Cool Stuff, it is not a question of whether wireless networks should be open or closed. Rather, there is some optimal level of openness which will maximize the carrier’s return.  A privately determined level of openness will no doubt diverge from a level of openness which represents a public optimal. However, this begs the question whether opening networks to wholesale in this way is good policy and whether the Europe and the US should follow suit.  The answer is far more complex than can be addressed in a humble blog entry.  Nonetheless, I am curious see how this market will develop.